Fixtures are coming thick and fast domestically, which gives us a great chance to get involved in more dabbling in the 2.5 goals markets.
This Tuesday is no excuse and we see Championship sides with a quick turnaround after their weekend FA Cup exploits. Here are my thoughts on the Tuesday night fixture list.
Derby Vs Reading
The Rams are looking for a tenth home game undefeated as the Royals head up to the midlands without their hotshot Nick Blackman, who was sold to Derby last week. Reading looking to turn their losing streak having lost their last six away games and play Derby who are sixth in the home table. Looking at this fixture, determining whether goals will be on the agenda swings on the bias that Derby are at home and generally effective.
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Paul Clement’s men at home have collected twenty-five from a possible thirty-six having lost just once in twelve games. Derby have been one of the most effective home sides in defence conceding less than a goal a game leaking eight from twelve. The Royals led by Brian McDermott have lost seven from twelve on the road this season leaking just over one and a half goals per game.
Reading without Blackman now may struggle for goals as they arrive at Pride Park, with a minimum target of capturing a draw under the lights. The reverse fixture this season saw Derby snatch the three points at the Madejski and can do the double against a Royal’s side lacking confidence on the road. With the resources of Derby, their priority is to win the game to close the gap on leaders Middlesbrough.
Derby may scrap for the points but with the balance on goals swings heavily to the under line. Thirty-six percent of Derby games has resulted in fewer than three goals. Reading have had match outcomes of two or less goals at forty percent, and feel the dominance will be on the Rams for this. It would not surprise me to see the home side win to nil here, are 7/10 for fewer than three goals.
Recommendation
Under 2.5 goals -7/10
Sheffield Wednesday Vs Bolton Wanderers
Neil Lennon’s Bolton were held by Conference outfit Eastleigh at the weekend as Carlos Carvalhal progressed to the fourth round at the weekend.
Coming into the game, we have Wednesday sitting a place outside the play offs versus a Bolton side under all sorts of Financial difficulties at the foot of the table. One credit to Lennon’s men is that they have kept some good spirit and not been privy to heavy defeats recently. In fact Bolton have suffered just one hammering in the last ten and that was to Rotherham.
Sheffield Wednesday have begun to turn their form around with three wins in the last four after a patchy period before this. Carvalhal’s men have a good home record, as Bolton are the only side without a win on the road this season. No doubt Lennon’s men have played with some passion despite the difficulties but goes without saying they have mustered just seven goals on the road this season in twelve attempts.
The hosts can win this game under the Hillsborough lights and will look towards hotshot Fernando Forestieri for goals with eleven to his name this term. This game can certainly see goals as seven of the last ten Sheffield Wednesday games have all resulted with three or more games. Just half of the visitors have gone the same way. Looking closely at the home versus away form conclude that both three of the last four respectively ended with three of more.
The overall percentages of goals suggest that a compiler should price this as a coin toss, so 10/11 either way. I was looking for evens and firms are offering evens. One or two of the lessor known firm have squeezed out 21/20 but a 1/1 is acceptable enough to take on.
Recommendation
Over 2.5 goals – 1/1
Port Vale V Swindon
Rob Page’s Vale welcomes the Robins under the lights of Vale Park on Tuesday night, where both sides look to maintain their limited unbeaten record. Vale, in tenth play Swindon who have turned their season around with five wins in the last eight. Swindon’s first-team coach Ross Embleton stated his side will continue to play attacking football following Saturday’s 4-2 comeback victory over Southend. It must be noted that two of the more recent Swindon defeats were against the top two sides in the league.
With attacking styles immediately consider us towards goals. Swindon played resilient football to comeback from a two-goal deficit after the first thirteen minutes in their win against Southend. Port Vale, challenging for a playoff position have contrasting results with just four from twelve heading over two goals. Swindon in comparison have over two-thirds of their results on the over line.
When we see a defensive side versus an attacking side, it tends to bring the defensive side out their shell. You could make a good case for another low scorer, but the successes of Swindon’s turnaround have revolved around their style of football. At the end of the day if they can score more than they concede a team will always win!
Port Vale have netted at least one goal in all but one outcome at Vale Park this term, whereas Swindon’s average goals scored and conceded is just shy of the three goal mark. I do think this game could see goals for the reasons listed above and can count on Nicholas Ajose and Jonathan Obika for goals, both netting a brace in their win at Southend.
I was looking for around even money for three or more in this game and although the stats do lean towards the under line, at a smidgen over even money in places I am willing to take this on.
Recommendation
Over 2.5 goals – 1/1
Pitting the treble together pays a combined 6.80!
