After a profitable column last weekend, we were just short of the full house, which would have reaped a full return. We edged a small profit, enough to make it worth playing and have three games, where we expect goals.
Swindon v Barnsley
This fixture is quite possibly on goal stats one of the strongest plays you will find this weekend for goal backers. The hosts boast the best average for goals at home versus the Tykes in the top four of over/under averages in League one on the road.
Dissecting the recent form, both are around mid-table, and both have somewhat similar goals scored and conceded record. Luke Williams Swindon at the Abbey in twenty-seven matches has seen eighty-seven goals averaging 3.22 goals per game. On the contrary, the Tykes led by Lee Johnson in the same period have experienced a goalless, with above the mean of three goals a game.
No wonder the implied price of just under fifty-seven percent is around the price you may expect. Personally, in my view to a one hundred percent book, I would be a sixty-forty balance.
Luke Williams Swindon plays fairly open football with the visitors on a great run also. Wins for the hosts boast five from the last eight, with the Tykes looking for a sixth consecutive victory.
In this period, looking at goals, both sides have seen three or more in five of the last eight. Both sides have a high respective home and away record for goals and surely this will be a banker for any plays on the coupon this weekend as stats suggest.
Over 2.5 goals @ 7/10
Morecambe v Newport County
The Globe Arena will host Newport County this weekend as Jim Bentley’s men consider whether a late play-off charge is on the horizon. This is where as Warren Feeney’s Newport attempt to pull further away from relegation where they are four points clear currently and would like to solidify their position in the football league.
The hosts come into this looking to overcome two straight defeats and what better times to face a side that has generated just one win from the last six. Both sides in the last eight have seen five games net over two goals. An interesting stat is that just one from the last eight has not seen less than two goals in the match. With the position of the teams, we have one side trying to pull away from relegation woes against a Morecambe side well equipped with playoff contender-ship in their times in the football league.
Warren Feeney has told his fringe players can leave the club for the sake of their careers to (or “intending to”) bring in new players before the close of the transfer window. So the direction of the county boss is to strengthen their squad and make making the first eleven more competitive, hence stating to the fringe players to look elsewhere but the sideline.
As you may have guessed, we are heading favourably on goals in this tie. The hosts have netted in each of the last ten but have conceded in all but two at the Globe Arena. The county has fared better on the road than at home earning nearly two-thirds of their points on the road this season.
By creating a more competitive outfit, players on both sides will be encouraged to assist the flow of goals on the offensive as the defensive are advised to limit goals being shipped. Using the stats they firmly look at goals in this one. The hosts have played fluid football for a couple of seasons, which has been a trademark of the club. The match odds imply the visitors have an increasing chance in the game despite the league position. I disagree although compilers are judging against the long-term home vs. away win ratio. The county has played some recent tight games, but up against formidable opponents. With the more open style, anticipates an early goal dominating the direction of this game to assist our over two goal line!
Over 2.5 goals @ 19/20 with BetVictor
Bury v Hull
The visitors have a fondness for this competition with two successive finals in the FA Cup, looking to win this match towards another fairy-tale final and in good stead to be credible contenders. Steve Bruce’s men travel the relatively short journey to Gigg Lane, where mid-table Bury determine whether a late play-off charge is realistic, or dreaming of a fifth round tie which hangs in the balance.
Bruce’s Hull leaders of the Championship are in pole position, and have the leadership to mount a credible challenge for the domestic title as well as becoming a potential giant killer having won the last four.
On the Road, Hull has played games where seventy-eight and a half percent of all away games have landed fewer than three goals. I anticipate Hull playing a full strength side for this, with Bury potentially seeing this game as a dead rubber. With increasing confidence in the Hull camp, they are competent in taking on both competitions en-route to their trip back to the Premier League next term.
The anticipation is that Steve Bruce’s men will dominate the game and look to park the bus as the expression goes. For those not appealing to the saying translates into taking the lead and sitting on it. Hull will look at frustrating David Flitcroft’s men, and can on the balance of probability see the visitors netting a win to nil, at one or two goals without reply. It may be worth backing both score lines if you feel confident in this.
Under 2.5 goals @ 8/11 with 888sport
Treble pays a little over 9/2 – 5.54 with 888sport and Unibet
