Inplay Tipsters – In Stats We Trust?

Inplay Tipsters – In Stats We Trust?

Inplay tipsters on social media

I promised I’d do an article on the swarms of inplay “tipsters” taking to social media, and exactly what I think of them. Now this piece is in no way claiming that all inplay tipsters are bad, because I know that isn’t true. In fact, I’ve had some great experiences within inplay tipping groups on Twitter and Facebook.

Positive inplay tipping

As mentioned I’ve been in some great groups in the past. No names will be mentioned, but you know who you are if you know me and you’re reading this. Inplay tipping done at it’s absolute best is as follows:

  1. Pre-match research is made and notes are taken. You should already have your eye on a possible bet.
  2. The game kicks off. You watch live pictures of the match in order to strengthen your pre game opinion.
  3. Odds are out of line with what you are witnessing (as well as your findings earlier in the day)
  4. The time is now right to strike at odds you consider to be too big at an asian line that is more in your favour than before the game.
  5. You advise the bet to your followers (after you’ve got on yourself of course.

That my friends is the perfect scenario for inplay tipping, and it’s why some people will charge a premium for their service (and fair play to them)

Now I was in a Facebook group which did exactly this. No, we didn’t win every bet. But we made some fucking good money together.

Negative inplay tipping

Oh dear oh dear. Now this is what we’re inundated with on Twitter. The basis of this is as follows:

  1. Find a football match where the stats on Betfred favour one team over the other.
  2. Tip a bet on the strength of those stats.

Not much to go on is there? Now here’s a bit of background for you.

The stats provided for football matches covered by Betfred inplay are provided by a company called Running Ball. This firm employ scouts from all around the world, give them brief training, and then send them with a handheld PDA to record the data of the match. The stats you see (attack, dangerous attack, shot off target, shot on target etc.) are the interpretation of one human being.

The stats are completely erratic. In one game you might see over 150 dangerous attacks in the first half alone. This is because the ‘scout’ is hitting the dangerous attack button every single time one team has possession in their opponents half.

I was also watching an Arsenal game live on TV last season. The ball was crossed from the left flank into an open space in the penalty area. Peter Cech claimed the ball with no other player within 6 yards of him…. It was recorded as a shot on target by the ‘scout’.

The dodgy inplay tipster is basing his bets solely on these stats. Hmmm.

Some of the popular inplay tips at the moment are:

  • Team X to score before 60 minutes
  • Team Y to score over 0.5 goals when odds hit x.xx
  • Team Z to score the next goal
  • Team A to win the first half
  • and so on

Ask yourself a question. Do you think you could do a better job than this? The answer is probably, if you put in a little effort. To get reward from something you simply have to show effort.

The VIP groups

DM me for access to the VIP group! 3rd £10-£1000 rolling acca landed this month! My VIP members are buzzing after winning 99 bets in a row. Ok a slight exaggeration but you’ve heard it all before right?

These groups prey on the weak minded. The punters who think they’re just minutes away from landing a life changing accumulator or roller. It’s just £5 a month to be part of this. Don’t make me laugh.

I am not against premium betting advice services. Far from it. But to command a premium for your knowledge and advice you need to:

  1. Be profitable. With hard evidence in the form of a historic spreadsheet listing all of your wins and losses as well as the selections, strike rate, and return on investment.
  2. Have an edge over the bookie in the long term.
  3. Show knowledge and reasoning behind your advice (aside from saying that the inplay stats look good.
  4. Not even think about tipping a rolling acca.

Does your tipster of choice do this?

I don’t want to drone on all day about this, as ultimately you will make your own decisions how you choose to spend your money. But trust me, it’s likely that the guy you are paying £5 a month to actually knows less than you about making betting pay.

Can I recommend an inplay tipster?

Yes I can. He’s not perfect (who is?) because he doesn’t keep a spreadsheet of all bets, but I’ll let him off of that because he works full time and is also completely free. I know him personally. He joined a group I was running 5 years ago, had natural ability, and was keen to learn. He goes by the name of @InplayMan.

I wasn’t asked to do this. If I was I would’ve told him to fuck off. He’s a genuine guy who works hard. Almost as hard as me.

Now you’ve read this, read my other Betting School articles. They may teach you a trick or two.

Please feel free to leave me some feedback on this article (positive or negative, I don’t mind) on my Twitter page.

Good luck