Close but no cigar is my assessment of last weekend’s BTTS treble. We had Huddersfield v Leeds in the bag by half-time, saw Leyton Orient and Scunthorpe do their part, but West Ham couldn’t oblige with a goal to match their hosts, Liverpool.
Anyway, it’s time to try again, so with one pick from each of England’s top three divisions, find my latest stat based attempt below.
Everton v Liverpool
Not much to choose from in the Premier League on Saturday, with Tottenham v Arsenal and Everton v Liverpool being the obvious games to look at since both are derby’s featuring the, arguably, stronger side as the away team.
Steven Gerrard 3/1 just to play today against Everton!…. Read more
Tottenham v Arsenal was my preference, but this column is all about stats and Spurs’ 50% home BTTS Yes strike rate mixed with Arsenal’s 50% BTTS Yes rate in their away games doesn’t quite matchup with Everton’s 63.3% and Liverpool’s 45.5% combined.
Everton’s 63.3% BTTS Yes strike rate equates to 7/11 home games, with the Toffeemen scoring in 8/11 and conceding in the exact same number. Liverpool’s away record, on the other hand, isn’t quite as appealing, with their 45.5% BTTS Yes away strike rate amounting to 5/11.
Liverpool have, however, faced teams like Burnley, Sunderland and Aston Villa on the road recently, and they’re all sides who really to struggle to score goals, so we should have a stronger chance than the stats suggest as Everton are a better home side than those three.
Plus, Rodgers’ Liverpool – who’ve scored in 9/11 road games – also played in the cup midweek and Everton didn’t, so that could help us along in a derby game that’s seen both teams score in its last two editions at Goodison Park.
BTTS Yes @ 7/10 with BetVictor
Watford v Blackburn
Elton John’s favourite club have an impressive 71.4% BTTS Yes strike rate with both teams scoring in 10 of their 14 home games. Indeed, Watford have actually scored in 12/14 and conceded in the same number.
Their opponents this weekend, Blackburn, have an even more eye catching BTTS Yes strike rate, with 11/14 away games seeing both teams score. All in all, Blackburn have scored in 12/14 away and conceded in 13/14, so there’s merit aplenty for this bet.
BTTS Yes @ 11/20 with BetVictor
Notts County v Chesterfield
The oldest professional football club in the world, Notts County, have a 61.5% BTTS Yes strike rate at home, with 8/13 games seeing both teams score. Within those 13 games, Notts County have scored in 9 and conceded in 11, with both teams scoring in 5 of their last 7 home games and last two straight.
Chesterfield, meanwhile, have a 69.2% strike rate from their 13 away games, with 9 seeing both teams score. Chesterfield themselves have conceded in 10/13, scoring in 9, with 3 of their last 4 home games seeing both teams score.
BTTS Yes @ 3/4 with BetVictor
A £10 treble pays £46.11 with BetVictor
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