Sickeningly, all three legs of last week’s BTTS treble lost and I’m now 0-2 on such bets. It’s all about the long term, though, and I’m just picking the best statistical BTTS Yes bet in each of England’s top three divisions anyway, so let’s hope the stats are right this week.
On our traditional chosen day of Saturday, however, due to cup action, it’s one pick from the Championship, one from League One and one from League Two.
Norwich v Brentford
Home side Norwich have an overall BTTS Yes percentage of 77.9, with 10 of their 13 home games seeing both teams score. Only the Canaries 5-0 drubbing of Huddersfield snapped a run of 5 BTTS Yes games in a row recently, but that was followed up with 6-1 defeat of Millwall and a 3-2 victory over Cardiff, so on current form we’re good to go.
Indeed, with Norwich having scored in 12 of their 13 home games in 2014/15 – and not drawing a blank at Carrow Road since September, the only concern here seems to be that Brentford mightn’t score.
However, Brentford scored in their last away game, a 1-0 win at Brighton, and they’ve also netted in each of their 6 road games prior to that – all of which also saw their opponents score.
All in all, Brentford road games have 61.5 BTTS Yes percentage (8/13)in away games this season, and 65 or above is the ideal, but BTTS yes failures came in their first 6 away games of the season and they’ve scored in every game since (7), with 6/7 seeing both teams score.
BTTS Yes @ 4/6 with BetVictor
Port Vale v Crewe
Seven League One fixtures take place on Saturday, and it’s a close call between two of them for the BTTS Yes divisional pick. Firstly, Colchester have a BTTS Yes percentage of 66.7 (8/12) from 13 home games played, whilst Leyton Orient have recorded a 61.5% BTTS Yes hit rate from 13 away games (8/13).
Secondly, Port Vale have a BTTS Yes percentage of 61.5, with 8 of their 13 home games seeing both teams score. Their opponents this weekend, Crewe, have seen both teams score in 8 of their 12 road games, making an overall percentage of 66.7.
So, all in all, each matched offers one 67.5% team and one 61.5. As a way of deciding, I’ve opted to look at the last four matches of each team (still in their respective home and away categories) to try to ensure that we’re as recent and relevant in our choice as can be.
BTTS Yes has occurred in 2 of Colchester’s last 4 home games and 2 of Leyton Orient’s last 4 away. Meanwhile, BTTS Yes has yielded profit in 3 of the last 4 Port Vale home games and all 4 of Crewe’s last 4 away contests.
BTTS Yes @ 4/6 with BetVictor
Mansfield v Wycombe
We have 11 League Two fixtures to choose from, but nine of them are either just really bad statistical marriages for a BTTS Yes bet or simply a case of a good BTTS Yes home team playing away – where they’re not as statistically effective – or vice-versa.
Mansfield only have a 58.3 (7/12) BTTS Yes percentage from 12 home games played, but the last three of those saw both teams score and Mansfield themselves have netted in five straight home games and 10/12 overall, so they’re in good recent scoring and conceding form, and very rarely fail to do their part.
Notably, Wycombe share the title of being League Two’s best BTTS Yes away side, along with Oxford and Cambridge, with 9 of their 13 (69.2%) road games seeing both teams score. Wycombe themselves have scored in 11 of those 13 games, with 3 of their last 4 away games seeing both teams score.
BTTS Yes @ 21/20 with BetVictor
A £10 treble pays £56.94 with BetVictor
Wimbledon v Accrington Stanley was the other game that I considered – and you might want to make a 4-fold, or even 5 with the other League One runner up, as the Dons have a BTTS Yes percentage of 61.5 (9/13) in 13 home games played, with 3 of their last 4 seeing both teams score, and have scored in 11 of them themselves, while Accrington Stanley (who are they?!) have the same BTTS Yes percentage in 9 out of 13 road games. However, the team made famous by a milk advert have only seen both teams score in two of their last four away.
Finally, in making a decision between the two contests, Mansfield v Wycombe offers a higher combined BTTS Yes likelihood and, using home and away where applicable, is statistically slightly more like to yield profit based on each side’s last four games. It’s a close call though.
