Looking at the over 2.5 market this weekend, I’ve gone through the English fixtures in depth and compiled a treble of selections that I feel will hit the target of 3 goals or more without too much trouble.
I’m a keen football statistician, and hope that the number crunching pays off on Saturday’s over 2.5 goals tips. Good luck with your bets if you follow.
Middlesbrough v Fulham
Middlesbrough were well fancied for promotion this year and are living up to that billing picking up decent results at home and away. A 2-0 defeat at the hands of a very decent Reading side last time out was the first time they had dropped points in 5 games and crucially to the market we are looking at here, 4 of those games also went over 2.5 goals.
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Fulham have made light work or establishing themselves as an average Championship side, despite the generous parachute payments on relegation from the Premier league and after a 17th place finish last year, are now sat in mid table.
Their results are all over the place and prior to a 2-2 draw with Charlton, an impressive 4-0 home victory over QPR was followed by a 3-0 defeat to Wolves.
The Over 2.5 odds are better than those for a Boro win and with 3/5 of their homes going over 2.5 including their last 2, and 4/5 of Fulham’s aways going over 2.5 including the last 4, this game really does look primed for goals.
Bet: Over 2.5 goals – 1.73 at Betfred
Southampton v Leicester
‘Football expert’ Robbie Savage predicted that Southampton would get relegated last season and while many more thought they may struggle, the appointment of Koeman proved to be a masterstroke and they finished the season in a very respectable 7th.
Fast forward 12 months and its Leicester who he predicts with have a ‘close shave with relegation’ and finish in 17th. Currently 5th in the table, it’s fortunate that ‘football experts’ don’t get judged on their expertise about football.
Southampton are looking anything but a flash in the pan under Koeman and currently sit in 9th just 3 points off the top 4. More importantly for this article though, the goals are starting to flow with 8 goals scored in their last 3 games and all those games going over 2.5 goals.
Claudio Ranieri appears to have continued the good form that Nigel Pearson presided over at the end of last season with Leicester and again goals are the order of the day with the Foxes scoring 9 in their last 4. Southampton have gone over 2.5 in 4/4 of their homes and Leicester in 3/4 of their aways.
Koeman will be desperate that their 3-1 victory last time out isn’t ‘wasted’ with a poor display at home and facing an away side full of confidence, an exciting games with a few goals in it looks likely here.
Bet: Over 2.5 goals – 1.8 at Betfred
Carlisle v Exeter
Exeter travel to Carlisle on Saturday but I’ll spare you the clichés about how ‘they won’t be relishing the trip’ and details of quite how many miles separate the cities. Why? Well, for starters it’s lazy and I’m not sure how relevant it is anyway. With Exeter winning 4 and drawing 1 of their last 5 visits, maybe getting as far away from St James Park as possible suits them, who knows.
With a point separating them, both teams are a win away from being in the play-off spots and both should see this as a game they can get three points from. Carlisle have won 3/4 on the road but with 2 defeats on the bounce at home, they will be desperate to get back to the form that saw them unbeaten in their opening 4 games at Brunton Park. Exeter meanwhile are now unbeaten in 3 and will see no reason why they can’t emulate their performance at Portsmouth and return with the 3 points.
Regardless of the result, we should see a competitive match here and with 4/6 Carlisle homes and 4/6 Exeter aways featuring 3 or more goals, we are getting a fairly decent price on the Over 2.5 goals. Oh and one last thing, over the last 3 seasons this fixture has averaged just over 4 goals per game.
Bet: Over 2.5 goals – 1.8 at Betfred
A £20 stake on the treble above pays £107.80 at Betfred